What is ElectorateIQ?
ElectorateIQ is a synthetic electorate intelligence platform. It assembles synthetic voter twins on demand for any ZIP, precinct, county, or district in the country — grounded in Census microdata, voter files, and 61,000 real survey respondents — so campaigns can test messages, framing, and turnout without the cost and delay of traditional polling.
Are these real voters?
No. Twins are statistically grounded synthetic individuals, never a reconstruction of a specific, identifiable person or their vote history. Each twin combines a synthetic Census profile with the donated answer vector of an anonymized real survey respondent who is demographically and geographically similar. Because a donor represents "someone like this person" rather than a specific individual, we measure validity only at the aggregate level.
How accurate is it?
In a 25-question validation battery across 12 audiences — scored against live public polls from Gallup, Pew, YouGov, Marist and AP-NORC — ElectorateIQ named the leading position on 91% of questions and pointed the right direction on 87%. It's strongest on demographic subgroup and local-market questions, and it compresses on high-partisan-identity issues like immigration enforcement. Average error runs about 8–10 points, so it's a directional instrument, not a substitute for a final poll. See the full validation and its limits.
Does ElectorateIQ predict elections?
No. It is campaign intelligence and messaging optimization, not election prediction. It is not a replacement for a final poll, and it does not make deterministic per-person forecasts. We position it deliberately as a tool for understanding voters and optimizing strategy.
Why not just use polling?
You still should, when the stakes and budget justify a final poll. ElectorateIQ is for everything before and around that: testing dozens of messages and framings in minutes instead of weeks, at hyperlocal resolution, for a fraction of the cost — so most races that could never afford a single professional poll can still make evidence-based messaging decisions. It complements polling; it doesn't replace a benchmark or a tracking poll.
Why not just use ChatGPT to role-play voters?
A general-purpose chatbot improvises a persona with no real demographics, no voter file, and no grounding in how a real electorate actually answered — so it returns a confident average you can't validate. ElectorateIQ runs on proprietary Consumer and Social models plus a custom voter-twin layer conditioned on real Census, party, and turnout data and a real survey respondent's attitudes, at the resolution of your district — and it's back-tested against real results. It's the twins and the models together that make the read trustworthy. See how it works.
How are the synthetic voters built?
In two layers. First, "who lives where": a synthetic population for every census tract from Census ACS and PUMS, with real party registration and turnout from voter files. Second, "how they think": each twin inherits the full answer vector of a real survey respondent, matched on demographics and then on place (urbanicity, region, and county lean). Panels are assembled at run time for whatever area and audience you select — nothing is pre-stored. Read the full method.
Where does the data come from?
Census ACS and PUMS microdata for demographics; state voter files for party registration and turnout; county 2020 returns for lean calibration; TIGER/BAF crosswalks for geography; and the Cooperative Election Study (about 61,000 respondents) for donated attitudes. All source data is public or licensed and de-identified.
What geographies are covered?
ElectorateIQ covers the country. Rather than storing a pre-built population, it assembles a panel on demand from nationwide Census and voter-file data at the census-tract level, with rollups to ZIP, precinct, county, city, and legislative and congressional districts.
How is a message test different from a standing?
The platform routes each question automatically. Where they stand — vote, party, turnout, standard issue positions — is served directly from each twin's own donated answer, with no AI model call. How they react — to a new message, ad, candidate, or event — goes to the generative Oracle, which reads the twin's relevant attitudes plus your stimulus and estimates the likely reaction.
Is it non-partisan?
Yes. ElectorateIQ is infrastructure, available to campaigns, consultants, and organizations across the spectrum. The models are trained to represent electorates as they are, not to favor an outcome.
How do I get access?
ElectorateIQ is rolling out to campaigns, consultants, and advocacy organizations. Request access with the states and races you're working, and we'll set you up.